Hypothesis. Method. Result. What changed in the thinking. The frameworks on the rest of the site are the conclusions; this is where the work happens before it becomes a conclusion. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it does not. Either way, it gets published. The current experiment tests an idea developed in Performance Max as a signal feedback loop.
Hypothesis: feeding a value-based conversion signal weighted by predicted retention will shift PMax audience mix toward higher-AOV cohorts within two weeks — without changing creative, budget, or targeting. The constraint: we have to see the shift in audience reporting, not just in conversion value reporting.
Hypothesis: an agent reading weekly PMax diagnostics, proposing 3–5 signal changes, and staging them for human approval can collapse the cycle by an order of magnitude. Mid-run finding: ~5× faster on the first three iterations, and the bottleneck moved — the new constraint is the org's approval cadence, not the model.
Hypothesis: vision-extracted creative features (hook archetype, pacing, claim density, brand-asset prominence) explain a measurable share of MMM residual variance — enough to redistribute channel coefficients and give the CMO a defensible creative-value number. Looking for a partner with 12+ months of clean media and creative metadata.
New Lab entries delivered before they're indexed. Plus the frameworks, teardowns, and counter-intuitive POVs.